As economic data highlights GBP, COVID-19 updates will be key


Early in the day:

It was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi dollar was in action early this morning. On the monetary policy front, the PBoC also set loan prime rates for the last time this year. While leaving the 5yr unchanged at 4.65%, the PBoC lowered the 1yr LPR from 3.85% to 3.80% this morning.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Consumer confidence weakened in the 4e trimester. Westpac’s consumer sentiment index fell from 102.7 to 99.1%.

According to the 4e quarterly survey,

  • Rising mortgage rates, as well as lingering concerns about COVID and its variants weighed on.

Looking at the subcomponents:

  • Compared to the 3e quarter, the current financial condition sub-index fell from 7.1 to -10.7 compared to an average of -8.5.
  • The outlook has also darkened, with the expected financial condition sub-index falling from 16.1 to 6.9.
  • As for the economy, the 1-year economic outlook sub-index fell from -5.6 to -11.2.
  • The 5-year economic outlook sub-index fell more modestly from 11.5 to 10.0.
  • Reversing the trend, the Good Time to Buy index fell from -5.2 to 0.4. This figure, however, remained well below the average of 24.4.

In November, New Zealand’s trade deficit fell from NZ $ 1,302 million to NZ $ 864 million. Year over year, the deficit widened from NZ $ 4,900 million to NZ $ 6,040 million.

According to New Zealand statistics,

Compared to November 2020,

  • Merchandise exports increased from NZ $ 668 million (13%) to NZ $ 5.9 billion.
    • Powdered milk, butter and cheese rose NZ $ 258 million (14%).
    • Aluminum and aluminum articles up NZ $ 141 million (151%).
    • Aircraft and parts fell NZ $ 113 million (89%).
    • Food preparations fell NZ $ 82 million (36%).
  • Merchandise imports increased from NZ $ 1.8 billion (37%) to NZ $ 6.7 billion.
    • Machinery and mechanical equipment up NZ $ 244 million (36%).
    • Vehicles, parts and accessories increased by NZ $ 187 million (32%).
    • Oil and products rose NZ $ 150 million (53%).
    • Ships, boats and floating structures up to NZ $ 146 million.

The Kiwi dollar fell from $ 0.67333 to $ 0.67448 when the figures were released. At the time of this writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down 0.30% to $ 0.6730.

Somewhere else

At the time of this writing, the Japanese Yen was down 0.04% to 113.580 against the US dollar, the Australian dollar down 0.14% to $ 0.7115.

The day to come

For the euro

It is a particularly calm day on the economic calendar. There are no hard statistics to give direction to the EUR.

The lack of statistics will leave the focus on COVID-19 news updates.

At the time of this writing, the euro was stable at $ 1.1240.

For the pound

It is a relatively calm day on the economic calendar. CBI’s industrial trend orders for December will be the focus this afternoon. With little further consideration for the markets, expect sensitivity to the pound sterling.

Outside of the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will also require continued monitoring.

At the time of this writing, the pound was down 0.14% to $ 1.3227.

Across the pond

It is a particularly calm day on the economic calendar. There are no major statistics to attract interest, leaving any chatter from FOMC members to influence.

At the time of this writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up 0.04% to 96.599.

For the loonie

It’s also a particularly calm day ahead on the economic data front. There are no important statistics to provide to give direction to the loonie. The lack of statistics will leave the loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment.

At the time of this writing, the loonie was down 0.05% to C $ 1.2895 against the US dollar.

For an overview of all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.


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