markets await economic data | Nasdaq

We start a new half of the trading year with a normal session followed by a long three-day weekend in the United States, commemorating the July 4 Independence Day. In this one, after the worst first half (1H) of trading since 1970, we again see pre-market futures in the red.

Trading volume is not expected to be large today, so our current -52 points on the Dow Jones, -44 on the Nasdaq and -10 on the S&P 500 should not move the needle much during the session. of today. Of course, no matter what happens today, we don’t expect a big dent to a Dow -15.9% YTD, S&P -21% , the small cap Russell 2000 almost -25% and the Nasdaq down a whopping -30.3%. At least not today.

Looking for a silver lining? As bad as the first half of 2022 was, remember that it started its first session of the year not just at cycle highs, but at all-time highs. So obviously you can only gather so much information in a day or two of trading. The fact that we are starting lower to start the 2H says more about current market trends than the direction the markets might be heading.

And where it might be headed still has a chance of working well: if China comes back online without too much drama (although that might be a little too much to ask: check out President Xi’s comments on the 25th anniversary of the re-annexation of Hong Kong) and that somehow the energy supply efforts can make up for what we are losing because of the boycott of Russia, it is possible that the US economy will reduce the inflation to the necessary levels without sinking into recession.

After today’s opening bell we get Manufacturing PMI and ISM draws for June – both of which should ease a bit from previous levels. Also, Building expenses for May should pick up a little compared to the +0.2% posted in April. Talk about not moving the needle, that won’t do either. But consider this data as cumulative toward a better understanding of our current economy, or at least our very recent past.

Next week we’ll get the big monthly jobs totals for June, along with factory orders, PMI and ISM services, a new JOLTS report and, of course, weekly jobless claims. We hope to be able to get up from the mat after our 1 hour beating; stronger than expected economic data would go a long way to establishing our ability to do so.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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