November 18 – November 22, 2019


Powell’s testimony from the Fed on the economy before Congress pushed stock prices higher last week. And it was worth paying attention to this news. But will the next round of economic data confirm the bullish outlook? Investors will need to focus on the Wednesday and Friday releases. Let’s take a look at the details.

The week behind

The second week of November was bearish for the US dollar and the price of gold has not recovered from its recent losses. On the flip side, stocks have extended their bull market for more than 10 years. The economic data releases were quite mixed last week, but investors concluded that monetary policy will continue to favor risky assets. A week ago, we described Powell’s testimony to the Fed to Congress as the most important event of the week ahead. And it probably was, because Jerome Powell once again painted a very bullish picture of the US economy.

The release of Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment issue set the tone for EUR / USD trading mid-week and the Aussie sold off following Wednesday’s major economic data releases.

The coming week

What about the coming week? Wednesday’s Fed minutes will be the most important economic release this week. We will also have a very busy Friday in Europe and the United States. There will also be data releases on Tuesday and Thursday. Outside of the United States, it is worth mentioning the economic data releases from Australia and Canada. Let’s take a look at the main highlights:

  • Wednesday we will have the Minutes of the FOMC meeting Release. Will that confirm what Powell said last week?
  • Friday will be data heavy in Europe and the United States The markets will react to the PMI figures and to Lagarde’s speech from the ECB.
  • On Tuesday we will have the data on US building permits and housing starts, and on Thursday the Philadelphia Fed number and existing home sales will be released.
  • the publication of oil stocks Wednesday will be the most important data oil traders get in the coming week.

Below are the main press releases of this week (EST time zone). For your convenience, we’ve broken them down by market where they’re particularly important, so you know what to look out for, if you have or plan to have positions in any of them. In addition, we put particularly important information in bold. This kind of news is what is most likely to trigger volatile movements. News that is not in bold usually does not result in larger intraday movements, so unless one engages in a particularly active form of day trading, it may be better to focus on news than we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the directions below as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we generally do not engage in day trading on days with “bold” events in any given market. However, in the event of longer-term trades, we generally choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not to change the currently open position.

Gold, silver and mining stocks

Monday, November 18

  • 7:30 p.m. Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Tuesday 19 November

  • 8:30 am US – Building permits, starts
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – CPI m / m, Core CPI m / m, Common CPI a / a, Median CPI a / a, Truncated CPI a / a
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting

Thursday 21 November

  • 7:30 a.m. Euro zone – ECB monetary policy meeting accounts
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 8:40 a.m. Canada – Speech by the Governor of BOC Poloz
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales

Friday 22 November

  • 3h30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Retail sales m / m, Core retail sales m / m
  • 9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Crude oil

Monday, November 18

  • 7:30 p.m. Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Tuesday 19 November

  • 8:30 am US – Building permits, starts
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – CPI m / m, Core CPI m / m, Common CPI a / a, Median CPI a / a, Truncated CPI a / a
  • 10:30 am United States – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting

Thursday 21 November

  • 7:30 a.m. Euro zone – ECB monetary policy meeting accounts
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 8:40 a.m. Canada – Speech by the Governor of BOC Poloz
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales

Friday 22 November

  • 3h30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Retail sales m / m, Core retail sales m / m
  • 9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Stock markets

Monday, November 18

  • 10:00 a.m. United States – NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday 19 November

  • 6:00 a.m. UK – CBI industrial orders pending
  • 8:30 am United States – Building permit, Housing starts
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 10:30 am US – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting

Thursday 21 November

  • 7:30 a.m. Euro zone – ECB monetary policy meeting accounts
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00 a.m. Eurozone – Consumer confidence
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales
  • 7:30 p.m. Japan – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Friday 22 November

  • 02:00 Euro zone – German final GDP q / q
  • 3:15 a.m. Eurozone – French Flash Services PMI, French Manufacturing PMI Flash
  • 3h30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German PMI Flash Manufacturing, German PMI Flash Services
  • 4h00 Euro zone – Flash manufacturing PMI, Flash PMI services
  • 08:00 Euro zone – Speech by German President Buba Weidmann
  • 9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
  • 10:00 a.m.US – UoM Consumer Sentiment revised

EUR / USD

Monday, November 18

  • 10:00 a.m. United States – NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday 19 November

  • 8:30 am US – Building permits, starts
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 02:00 Euro zone – German IPP m / m
  • 04:00 Eurozone – ECB Financial Stability Review
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting

Thursday 21 November

  • 7:30 a.m. Euro zone – ECB monetary policy meeting accounts
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00 a.m. Eurozone – Consumer confidence
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales

Friday 22 November

  • 02:00 Euro zone – German final GDP t / t
  • 3h15 Euro zone – French Flash Services PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 3h30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German PMI Flash Manufacturing, German PMI Flash Services
  • 4h00 Euro zone – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
  • 8:00 am Euro zone – Speech by German President Buba Weidmann
  • 9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
  • 10:00 a.m.US – UoM Consumer Sentiment revised

USD / JPY

Tuesday 19 November

  • 8:30 am US – Building permits, starts
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 6:50 p.m. Japan – Trade balance
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting
  • 11:30 p.m. Japan – Activity All Industries m / m

Thursday 21 November

  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales
  • 6.30 p.m. Japan – National Core CPI y / y
  • 7:30 p.m. Japan – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Friday 22 November

03:30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German PMI Flash Manufacturing, German PMI Flash Services

9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

10:00 a.m.US – UoM Consumer Sentiment revised

GBP / USD

Tuesday 19 November

  • 6:00 a.m. UK – CBI industrial orders pending
  • 8:30 am US – Building permits, starts
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting

Thursday 21 November

  • 4:30 a.m. UK – Public sector net borrowing
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales

Friday 22 November

  • 03:30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German PMI Flash Manufacturing, German PMI Flash Services
  • 9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
  • 10:00 a.m.US – UoM Consumer Sentiment revised

USD / CAD

Monday, November 18

  • 10:00 a.m. United States – NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday 19 November

  • 8:30 am US – Building permits, starts
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Manufacturing sales m / m
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 8:30 am Canada – CPI m / m, basic CPI m / m, Common CPI a / a, median CPI a / a, truncated CPI a / a
  • 10:30 am US – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting

Thursday 21 November

  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – ADP Non-Farm Job Change
  • 8:40 a.m. Canada – Speech by the Governor of BOC Poloz
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales
  • 10:30 a.m. Canada – BOC Financial System Review

Friday 22 November

  • 03:30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German PMI Flash Manufacturing, German PMI Flash Services
  • 8:30 am Canada – Retail sales m / m, basic retail sales m / m
  • 9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

AUD / USD

Monday, November 18

  • 10:00 a.m. United States – NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 5:00 p.m. Australia – Speech by the Deputy Governor of the RBA, Kent
  • 7:30 p.m. Australia – Minutes of the monetary policy meeting

Tuesday 19 November

  • 8:30 am US – Building permits, starts
  • 9:00 am US – Speech by Board member Wilkins
  • 6.30 p.m. Australia – MI Leading Index m / m
  • 8:30 p.m. China – PBOC interest rate

wednesday 20 november

  • 10:30 am US – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – Minutes of the FOMC meeting

Thursday 21 November

  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00 a.m. United States – CB Leading Index m / m, Existing Home Sales
  • 5:00 p.m. Australia – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Friday 22 November

  • 03:30 Euro zone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde, German PMI Flash Manufacturing, German PMI Flash Services
  • 9.45am United States – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

10:00 a.m.US – UoM Consumer Sentiment revised


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