October 14 – October 18, 2019


Markets all but ignored Fed discussions last week as developments in the U.S.-China trade war distracted investors from expected press releases. But it was worth paying attention to our news calendar from last week which highlighted UK economic data leading up to the GBP rally at the end of the week. This week we will also have some potentially emotional press releases. So let’s review these events.

The week behind

The Fed’s talks last week on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday did not lead to dramatic spikes in volatility as investors paid more attention to developments in the US-China trade war. However, the end of the week brought a huge rally in the pound. The rally followed Thursday’s UK GDP, manufacturing output data releases and a speech by BOE Governor Carney.

The week ahead

And the week to come? the important economic data in the United States will come Wednesday and Thursday. Earnings season begins and we will see the first major releases of quarterly results mid-week. Finally, German and Chinese data will be released on Tuesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, we may see increased volatility in oil prices following the weekly inventory numbers.

  • Wednesday Retail sales number and thursday Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be the most anticipated US economic news releases this week.
  • the third quarter earnings season come! We will see significant releases in the middle of the week.
  • Other notable releases will include German ZEW Economic Sentiment and China’s GDP number. This week’s economic news from Australia, Canada and the UK is also worth mentioning, as it will likely affect currency exchange rates.
  • Wednesday will be important for oil as we will have the weekly API stock number and crude oil stocks.

Below are the major press releases for this week (EST time zone). For your convenience, we have broken them down by market for which they are particularly important, so that you know what to pay particular attention to, if you have or plan to have positions in one of them. In addition, we put particularly important news in bold. This kind of news is what is most likely to trigger volatile moves. News that is not in bold usually does not result in larger intraday moves, so unless one is engaging in a particularly active form of day trading, it may be best to focus on the news that we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the indications below as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we generally do not engage in any day trading during days with “bold” events in a given market. However, in the case of more medium-term trades, we generally choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not to change the position currently open.

Gold, silver and mining stocks

tuesday october 15

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Empire State Manufacturing Index

Wednesday October 16

  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Consumer Price Index, Core Consumer Price Index m/m
  • 2:00 p.m. US – Beige Book
  • 8:30 p.m. Australia – Change in employment, unemployment rate

Thursday October 17

  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexBuilding Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – FOMC Members Bowman, Evans, Williams Speeches
  • 10:00 p.m. China – GDP y/y

Crude oil

monday october 14

  • 8:30 p.m. Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 9:30 p.m. China – Consumer Price Index y/y, Producer Price Index y/y

tuesday october 15

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Wednesday October 16

  • 10:30 a.m. United States – crude oil inventories
  • 4:30 p.m. United States – API Crude Oil Weekly Stock

Thursday October 17

  • 8:30 a.m. US – Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts, initial applications
  • 9:15 a.m. US – Industrial production m/m, capacity utilization rate
  • 10:00 p.m. China – GDP y/y

Stock markets

monday october 14

  • 9:30 p.m. China – Consumer Price Index y/y, Producer Price Index y/y
  • All Day, USA – Holidays

tuesday october 15

  • 5:00 a.m. euro zone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • Before the opening of the United States – JPM, C, GS, JNJ Quarterly profits
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Empire State Manufacturing Index

Wednesday October 16

  • Before the opening of the United States – BAC Quarterly profits
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 2:00 p.m. US – Beige Book
  • After US shutdown – NFLXIBM quarterly results

Thursday October 17

  • Pre-US Open – MS, HON, Quarterly Results
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexBuilding Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims
  • 9:15 a.m. US – Industrial production m/m, capacity utilization rate
  • 22:00 China – GDP y/yIndustrial production y/a, Capital investment, Retail sales y/a, Unemployment rate

friday october 18

  • Pre-US Open – KO, AXP, SLB Quarterly Earnings

EUR/USD

monday october 14

  • All Day, USA – Holidays

tuesday october 15

  • 5:00 a.m. euro zone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Empire State Manufacturing Index

Wednesday October 16

  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 2:00 p.m. US – Beige Book

Thursday October 17

  • 8:30 a.m. United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexBuilding Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims
  • 9:15 a.m. US – Industrial production m/m, capacity utilization rate
  • 2:00 p.m. United States – FOMC Members Bowman, Evans, Williams Speeches
  • 22:00 China – GDP y/y

USD/JPY

Wednesday October 16

  • 8:30 a.m. US – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m

Thursday October 17

  • 8:30 a.m. US – Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts, initial applications
  • 10:00 p.m. China – GDP y/y

GBP/USD

tuesday october 15

  • 4:30 UK – Speech by BOE Governor Carney
  • 4:30 a.m. United Kingdom – Index of average earnings, unemployment rate

Wednesday October 16

  • 4:30 UK – Consumer price index y/y
  • 8:30 a.m. US – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 9:00 a.m. UK – Speech by BOE Governor Carney

Thursday October 17

  • 4:30 UK – Retail sales m/mBOE Credit Conditions Survey
  • 8:30 a.m. US – Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts, initial applications
  • 10:00 p.m. China – GDP y/y

USD/CAD

Wednesday October 16

  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Consumer Price Index, Core Consumer Price Index m/m
  • 8:30 a.m. US – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 10:30 a.m. United States – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 4:30 p.m. US – API Crude Oil Weekly Stock

Thursday October 17

  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Manufacturing sales m/m, ADP Non-farm employment Change
  • 8:30 a.m. US – Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts, initial applications
  • 10:00 p.m. China – GDP y/y

AUD/USD

monday october 14

  • 8:30 p.m. Australia – Monetary policy meeting minutes
  • All Day, Australia – Public Holiday

Wednesday October 16

  • 8:30 a.m. US – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 8:30 p.m. Australia – Change in employment, unemployment rate
  • 10:30 a.m. United States – Crude Oil Inventories
  • 4:30 p.m. US – API Crude Oil Weekly Stock

Thursday October 17

  • 8:30 a.m. US – Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts, initial applications

10:00 p.m. China – GDP y/y


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