The US economy almost certainly grew slightly in the last quarter and will have shrunk


Economists expect the economic system to have grown slightly in the second quarter, and some expect it to shrivel up.

Estimates show that the economic system will have grown by several tenths of a percent. Goldman Sachs expects a 1% rise, while Moody’s Economics forecasts a 1% decline.

The gradual expansion forecast sees the 1.6% decline in the first quarter. But there are plenty of forecasts of a shrinking economic system, including the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracker, which saw a 1.2% drop for the second quarter.

This would make it the momentary document destroyer of GDP in a row, one of the vital alerts that the economic system is in recession. However, economists are cautious to indicate that the tough labor market and the various components make a recession unlikely at this time. They also say the National Bureau of Economic Research, the legitimate arbiter of recession calls, shouldn’t be calling for one now either.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday he does not believe the economy is in a recession.

“Let’s say it’s negative. The headline everywhere will be “recession”. It’s not how the markets think it is, but you’ll see people screaming ‘recession,’” said Michael Schumacher, head of macrotechnics at Wells Fargo. “Then there will be a debate about it. … This will matter more to the political types than to the market.

Some economists raised their forecasts on Wednesday, ahead of the Q2 paper’s release, after the monthly solids paper turned higher than expected, and advanced trade news confirmed the trading hole had widened significantly. Shrunk. Durable items rose 1.9% in June after a weaker advance of 0.8% in May.

Goldman Sachs economists raised their forecast for gross domestic product to 1% from 0.4% after the announcement.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he now had a forecast of a destructive 1%; earlier than expected, it was once a destructive 1.3%. But he too no longer imagines today that the destructive volume, mixed with the contraction of the first quarter, would signal a recession.

“I think it’s hard to imagine a recession when we’ve created so many jobs. There are record vacancies,” he said, noting that business expansion has averaged around 500,000 per month. “It’s not consistent with the idea that the economy is in recession. It is every industry and in every corner of the country that is experiencing strong job growth. It’s just not a recession.

The economic system added 372,000 jobs added in June.

Zandi noted that destructive expansion numbers are usually revised higher, and the reasons for contraction do not last. The slowdown may also be partly linked to the impact of Covid on the economy, which has led to disheveled supply chains and inventory problems.

“The weakness in first-quarter and second-quarter GDP is mostly in trade and inventories, and those are temporary drivers of GDP,” he said. “They swing GDP from quarter to quarter, but they are not persistent sources of growth or weights on growth.”

Trade subtracted 3.2 equity issues from GDP in the first quarter, but that should be supportive in the second quarter, Zandi added.

“We had a pretty big inventory gain in the first quarter. … I think that’s due to pandemic-related trade disruptions and the timing of things,” he said. significantly in the first trimester. … We’re going to see some inventory build in the second quarter, but not as big an inventory gain. It is therefore a drag on GDP.

JP Morgan economists raised their expansion forecast from 0.7% to 1.4% after Wednesday’s financial releases.

“The most significant surprises were related to trade and inventories, as the June trade deficit was narrower than expected and nominal changes in June inventories were above expectations,” the JP economists wrote in a nutshell. Morgan.

The corporate headline deficit narrowed to $98.2 billion in June from $104 billion in May, and exports rose 2.5%, while imports fell 0.5%. The trade data is not complete as it is not accompanied by goods and services, but JP Morgan economists said they now expect the trade deficit to improve further.

“We believe the data in hand strongly suggests that the real trade deficit narrowed significantly in 2Q [which we now think added 1.6%-pts to 2Q real GDP growth]“, they noted.

Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, said the trade news helped him believe the economy grew at a 1.5% pace in the quarter.

“That doesn’t mean you can’t get a negative impression, but it’s less likely,” he said. Cummins also rewired two destructive quarters not yet to mean the economy is actually in a recession.

“If we get another negative quarter for the second quarter, they call it a technical recession,” Cummins said. “The problem is, that’s not how the NBER sees it. … They look at monthly data. They will look at employment. They will look at personal income, consumption, industrial production, all monthly data and decide if the economy is contracting or expanding.

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