The Weekly Wrap – Discussion of lockdowns and economic data provided with dollar backing


It was a busier week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 19e November.

A total of 60 statistics were monitored, up from 39 the previous week.

Of the 60 statistics, 36 are ahead of forecast, with 16 economic indicators below expectations. There were 8 stats that were in line with the week’s forecast.

Looking at the numbers, 38 of the statistics reflect an upward trend compared to previous numbers. Of the 22 remaining statistics, 17 reflected a deterioration from the previous one.

For the greenback, it was a 4e consecutive week in the green. Market reaction to economic data and foreclosure chatter in Europe pushed upward during the week. In the week ending 19the In November, the Dollar Spot Index rose 0.95% to 96.031. The previous week, the dollar had appreciated 0.85% to 95.122.

Outside the United States

Through the 1st Halfway through the week, retail sales figures impressed, despite a sharp recovery in inflationary pressures.

In October, core retail sales increased 1.7%, with retail sales also increasing 1.7%. Retail sales increased 0.5% in September, with core retail sales increasing 0.70%.

On Thursday, the Philly Fed’s Manufacturing PMI figures and weekly jobless claims also sparked interest.

The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 23.8 to 39.0, with the rise coming despite continued supply chain disruptions.

Unemployment claims figures were less impressive, however, with initial jobless claims rising from 269,000 to 268,000 in the week ending 12e November.

Outside the UK

It has been a busy week, with figures on employment, inflation and retail sales.

The statistics were biased towards the positive.

In September, the unemployment rate rose from 4.5% to 4.3%, supported by a 247k increase in employment. The number of applicants continued to decline in October, which was also positive.

Inflation figures have also raised the prospect of a BoE move. In October, the UK’s annual inflation rate accelerated from 3.1% to 4.2%. Wholesale inflationary pressure also increased, with the PPI entry index rising 1.4% in the month. In September, the index had risen 0.8%.

However, retail sales were also up, despite the rebound in consumer prices.

In October, core retail sales rose 1.6%, with retail sales increasing 0.8% in the month.

During the week, the British pound rose 0.28% to end the week at $ 1.3451. The pound had fallen 0.62% to $ 1.3414 the week before.

The FTSE100 ended the week down 1.69%, reversing a 0.60% gain from the previous week.

Outside the euro zone

At the start of the week, euro area trade data was at the center of concerns ahead of euro area GDP figures for the 3e trimester.

In September, the euro area’s trade surplus widened from € 3.5 billion to € 7.3 billion, with both exports and imports rising. Over one year, intra-euro zone trade increased by 16.4%.

2sd estimate the GDP figures for the 3e quarter were in line with 1st estimates, provide support. In the 2sd quarter, the economy grew 2.2%, growing 3.7% year-on-year.

In midweek, euro zone inflation failed to support the euro despite renewed inflationary pressures.

In October, the euro area’s annual inflation rate accelerated from 3.4% to 4.1%, which was in line with preliminary figures.

At the weekend, big German inflation figures also had a moderate impact on the euro. In October, Germany’s wholesale inflation rate accelerated from 14.2% to 18.4%.

From the ECB, the Financial Stability Review had few surprises, while ECB President Lagarde weighed on the euro.

In several speeches throughout the week, the President of the ECB continued to ensure the markets of the status quo on the interest rate front …

At the end of the week, concerns over the new foreclosure measures added further downward pressure on the euro.

For the week, the euro slipped 1.35% to $ 1.1290. The previous week, the euro had fallen 1.05% to $ 1.1445.

EuroStoxx600 fell 0.14%, while the CAC40 and DAX40 ended the week with gains of 0.29% and 0.41% respectively.

For the loonie

Key stats included inflation and retail sales figures, with mixed stats during the week.

In October, Canada’s annual core inflation rate fell from 3.7% to 3.8%, with consumer prices rising 0.7% during the month.

Retail sales reversed, however. In September, core retail sales fell 0.2%, as retail sales fell 0.6%. Core retail sales and retail sales rose 2.8% and 2.1% respectively in August.

In the week ending 19the In November, the loonie fell 0.72% to C $ 1.2640. During the previous week, the loonie had fallen 0.75% to C $ 1.2550.

Somewhere else

It was another bearish week for the Australian dollar and the Kiwi dollar.

The Australian dollar slipped 1.32% to $ 0.7235, with the Kiwi dollar ending the week down 0.57% to $ 0.7004.

For the Australian dollar

Wage growth was the focus.

In the 3e quarter, wages rose 0.6% qoq against an expected increase of 0.5%. Wages had increased 0.4% in the previous quarter. Year on year, wages increased by 2.2%.

The annual growth rate returned to a more steady wage growth pattern for the September quarter, following labor market disruptions through 2020 and 2021.

On the monetary policy front, the minutes of the RBA meeting also generated interest but failed to prevent a further decline in the week.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Wholesale inflation figures did not provide support.

In the 3e quarter, New Zealand’s PPI entry index rose 1.6% quarter on quarter. The index had risen 3.0% in the previous quarter.

For the Japanese yen

Japan’s GDP figures and trade data sparked interest.

In the 3e quarter, the Japanese economy contracted 0.8% qoq and 3.0% yoy. The economy grew 0.4% in the previous quarter.

Trade data did not impress either, with exports slowing down. In October, Japan’s trade deficit narrowed from 624.1 billion yen to 67.4 billion yen. Exports are up 9.4% over one year against 13.0% in September.

The Japanese yen fell 0.09% to 113.99 against the US dollar. During the previous week, the yen had fallen 0.42% to 113.890.

Outside of china

Industrial production and retail sales figures were key statistics for the week.

Industrial production rose 3.5% year-on-year in October, compared to 3.1% in September. Retail sales rose 4.9% from 3.6% the previous month.

In the week ending 19the In November, the Chinese yuan fell 0.12% to 6.3871 CNY. The previous week, the yuan had ended the week up 0.30% to 6.3797 CNY.

The CSI300 rose 0.03%, while the Hang Seng ended the week down 1.10%.

This article originally appeared on FX Empire

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